Abstract
Individuals involved in common group activities or settings, e.g., college students that are enrolled in the same class and/or live in the same dorm, are exposed to recurrent contacts of physical proximity. These contacts are known to mediate the spread of an infectious disease; however, it is not obvious how the properties of the spreading process are determined by the structure of and the interrelation among the group settings that are at the root of those recurrent interactions. Here, we show that reshaping the organization of groups within a population can be used as an effective strategy to decrease the severity of an epidemic. Specifically, we show that when group structures are sufficiently correlated, e.g., the likelihood for two students living in the same dorm to attend the same class is sufficiently high, outbreaks are longer but milder than for uncorrelated group structures. Also, we show that the effectiveness of interventions for disease containment increases as the correlation among group structures increases. We demonstrate the practical relevance of our findings by taking advantage of data about housing and attendance of students at the Indiana University campus in Bloomington. By appropriately optimizing the assignment of students to dorms based on their enrollment, we are able to observe a twofold to fivefold reduction in the severity of simulated epidemic processes.
- Received 2 June 2023
- Revised 17 September 2023
- Accepted 8 November 2023
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevX.13.041054
Published by the American Physical Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license. Further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the published article’s title, journal citation, and DOI.
Published by the American Physical Society
Physics Subject Headings (PhySH)
synopsis
Epidemic Spreading in Multilayer Networks
Published 20 December 2023
Disease contagion is suppressed when different social groups have a large overlap in membership.
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Popular Summary
Recurrent contacts among individuals in common groups and settings are known to mediate the spread of an infectious disease. However, it is not obvious how the properties of the spreading process are determined by the structure of and the interrelation among the group settings. Here, we show that, if the goal is preventing disease spreading within a population of college students, having a strong and correlated group structure is more desirable than one that is weak or uncorrelated. When groups are neat and correlated, there is in fact not only more time to intervene but also higher chances of success for interventions aimed at suppressing disease spreading.
Our findings are based on a systematic study on synthetic populations with tunable group strength and correlation. We then validate those findings using data about housing and enrollment of college students at the University of Indiana Bloomington. In the real-world case, we show that, by appropriately optimizing the assignment of students to dorms based on their class enrollment, one can achieve a twofold-to-fivefold reduction in the severity of an epidemic.
Our work underscores the fundamental role of network community structure in the design of strategies of epidemic surveillance and intervention, and highlights some easy-to-implement principles to reduce the severity of real epidemics that managers can take under consideration when planning group activities in colleges or other large organizations.