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Degree Dispersion Increases the Rate of Rare Events in Population Networks

Jason Hindes and Michael Assaf
Phys. Rev. Lett. 123, 068301 – Published 9 August 2019
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Abstract

There is great interest in predicting rare and extreme events in complex systems, and in particular, understanding the role of network topology in facilitating such events. In this Letter, we show that degree dispersion—the fact that the number of local connections in networks varies broadly—increases the probability of large, rare fluctuations in population networks generically. We perform explicit calculations for two canonical and distinct classes of rare events: network extinction and switching. When the distance to threshold is held constant, and hence stochastic effects are fairly compared among networks, we show that there is a universal, exponential increase in the rate of rare events proportional to the variance of a network’s degree distribution over its mean squared.

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  • Received 7 January 2019
  • Revised 12 June 2019

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.123.068301

© 2019 American Physical Society

Physics Subject Headings (PhySH)

Statistical Physics & ThermodynamicsNetworks

Authors & Affiliations

Jason Hindes1,* and Michael Assaf2,†

  • 1U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Code 6792, Plasma Physics Division, Washington, D.C. 20375, USA
  • 2Racah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem 91904, Israel

  • *jason.hindes@nrl.navy.mil
  • michael.assaf@mail.huji.ac.il

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Issue

Vol. 123, Iss. 6 — 9 August 2019

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