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Generalized Gelation Theory Describes Onset of Online Extremist Support

Pedro D. Manrique, Minzhang Zheng, Zhenfeng Cao, Elvira Maria Restrepo, and Neil F. Johnson
Phys. Rev. Lett. 121, 048301 – Published 27 July 2018
Physics logo See Focus story: Identifying Early Signs of Online Extremist Groups
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Abstract

We introduce a generalized form of gelation theory that incorporates individual heterogeneity and show that it can explain the asynchronous, sudden appearance and growth of online extremist groups supporting ISIS (so-called Islamic State) that emerged globally post-2014. The theory predicts how heterogeneity impacts their onset times and growth profiles and suggests that online extremist groups present a broad distribution of heterogeneity-dependent aggregation mechanisms centered around homophily. The good agreement between the theory and empirical data suggests that existing strategies aiming to defeat online extremism under the assumption that it is driven by a few “bad apples” are misguided. More generally, this generalized theory should apply to a range of real-world systems featuring aggregation among heterogeneous objects.

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  • Received 21 December 2017
  • Revised 15 June 2018

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.121.048301

© 2018 American Physical Society

Physics Subject Headings (PhySH)

Interdisciplinary Physics

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Identifying Early Signs of Online Extremist Groups

Published 27 July 2018

An analogy between the growth of online networks and the formation of gels suggests ways to detect extremist groups before they become influential.

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Authors & Affiliations

Pedro D. Manrique1, Minzhang Zheng1, Zhenfeng Cao1, Elvira Maria Restrepo2, and Neil F. Johnson3

  • 1Physics Department, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida 33126, USA
  • 2Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052, USA
  • 3Physics Department, George Washington University, Washington, DC 20052, USA

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Issue

Vol. 121, Iss. 4 — 27 July 2018

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