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Superspreaders and lockdown timing explain the power-law dynamics of COVID-19

Alexei Vazquez
Phys. Rev. E 102, 040302(R) – Published 28 October 2020

Abstract

Infectious disease outbreaks are expected to grow exponentially in time when left unchecked. Containment measures such as lockdown and social distancing can drastically alter the growth dynamics of the outbreak. This is the case for the 2019–2020 COVID-19 outbreak, which is characterized by a power-law growth. Strikingly however, the power-law exponent is different across countries. Here I illustrate the relationship between these two extreme scenarios, exponential and power-law growth, based on the impact of superspreaders and lockdown strategies to contain the outbreak. The theory predicts a relationship between the power- law exponent and the time interval between the first case and lockdown that is validated by the observed COVID-19 data across different countries.

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  • Received 6 August 2020
  • Revised 6 October 2020
  • Accepted 16 October 2020

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.102.040302

©2020 American Physical Society

Physics Subject Headings (PhySH)

Interdisciplinary PhysicsNetworksPhysics of Living Systems

Authors & Affiliations

Alexei Vazquez*

  • Cancer Research UK Beatson Institute, Glasgow G61 1BD, United Kingdom and Institute for Cancer Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G61 1QH, United Kingdom

  • *avazque1@protonmail.com

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Issue

Vol. 102, Iss. 4 — October 2020

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