Universal Behavior in a Generalized Model of Contagion

Peter Sheridan Dodds and Duncan J. Watts
Phys. Rev. Lett. 92, 218701 – Published 24 May 2004

Abstract

Models of contagion arise broadly in both the biological and the social sciences, with applications ranging from the transmission of infectious diseases to the spread of cultural fads. In this Letter, we introduce a general model of contagion which, by explicitly incorporating memory of past exposures to, for example, an infectious agent, rumor, or new product, includes the main features of existing contagion models and interpolates between them. We obtain exact solutions for a simple version of the model, finding that under general conditions only three classes of collective dynamics exist. Furthermore, we find that, for a given length of memory, the class into which a particular system falls is determined by only two parameters. Our model suggests novel measures for assessing the susceptibility of a population to large contagion events, and also a possible strategy for inhibiting or facilitating them.

  • Figure
  • Figure
  • Received 5 December 2003

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.92.218701

©2004 American Physical Society

Authors & Affiliations

Peter Sheridan Dodds1,* and Duncan J. Watts2,3,†

  • 1Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy, Columbia University, 420 West 118th Street, New York, New York 10027, USA
  • 2Department of Sociology, Columbia University, 1180 Amsterdam Avenue, New York, New York 10027, USA
  • 3Santa Fe Institute, 1399 Hyde Park Road, Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501, USA

  • *Electronic address: peter.dodds@columbia.edu
  • Electronic address: djw24@columbia.edu

Article Text (Subscription Required)

Click to Expand

References (Subscription Required)

Click to Expand
Issue

Vol. 92, Iss. 21 — 28 May 2004

Reuse & Permissions
Access Options
Author publication services for translation and copyediting assistance advertisement

Authorization Required


×
×

Images

×

Sign up to receive regular email alerts from Physical Review Letters

Log In

Cancel
×

Search


Article Lookup

Paste a citation or DOI

Enter a citation
×