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Self-similar aftershock rates

Jörn Davidsen and Marco Baiesi
Phys. Rev. E 94, 022314 – Published 23 August 2016
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Abstract

In many important systems exhibiting crackling noise—an intermittent avalanchelike relaxation response with power-law and, thus, self-similar distributed event sizes—the “laws” for the rate of activity after large events are not consistent with the overall self-similar behavior expected on theoretical grounds. This is particularly true for the case of seismicity, and a satisfying solution to this paradox has remained outstanding. Here, we propose a generalized description of the aftershock rates which is both self-similar and consistent with all other known self-similar features. Comparing our theoretical predictions with high-resolution earthquake data from Southern California we find excellent agreement, providing particularly clear evidence for a unified description of aftershocks and foreshocks. This may offer an improved framework for time-dependent seismic hazard assessment and earthquake forecasting.

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  • Received 9 January 2015

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.94.022314

©2016 American Physical Society

Physics Subject Headings (PhySH)

General Physics

Authors & Affiliations

Jörn Davidsen1,2,* and Marco Baiesi3,4,†

  • 1Complexity Science Group, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada T2N 1N4
  • 2GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 3.2: Geomechanics and Rheology, Telegrafenberg, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany
  • 3Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Padova, Via Marzolo 8, I-35131 Padova, Italy
  • 4INFN - Sezione di Padova, Via Marzolo 8, I-35131 Padova, Italy

  • *davidsen@phas.ucalgary.ca
  • baiesi@pd.infn.it

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Issue

Vol. 94, Iss. 2 — August 2016

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