Atypical viral dynamics from transport through popular places

Pedro D. Manrique, Chen Xu, Pak Ming Hui, and Neil F. Johnson
Phys. Rev. E 94, 022304 – Published 12 August 2016

Abstract

The flux of visitors through popular places undoubtedly influences viral spreading—from H1N1 and Zika viruses spreading through physical spaces such as airports, to rumors and ideas spreading through online spaces such as chat rooms and social media. However, there is a lack of understanding of the types of viral dynamics that can result. Here we present a minimal dynamical model that focuses on the time-dependent interplay between the mobility through and the occupancy of such spaces. Our generic model permits analytic analysis while producing a rich diversity of infection profiles in terms of their shapes, durations, and intensities. The general features of these theoretical profiles compare well to real-world data of recent social contagion phenomena.

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  • Received 26 April 2016
  • Revised 20 July 2016

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.94.022304

©2016 American Physical Society

Physics Subject Headings (PhySH)

  1. Research Areas
  1. Physical Systems
Networks

Authors & Affiliations

Pedro D. Manrique1, Chen Xu2, Pak Ming Hui3, and Neil F. Johnson1

  • 1Physics Department, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida 33126, USA
  • 2College of Physics, Optoelectronics and Energy, Soochow University, Suzhou 215006, China
  • 3Department of Physics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, Hong Kong

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Issue

Vol. 94, Iss. 2 — August 2016

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