Physical Theory of the Competition that Allows HIV to Escape from the Immune System

Competition within the immune system may degrade immune control of viral infections. We formalize the evolution that occurs in both HIV-1 and the immune system quasispecies. Inclusion of competition in the immune system leads to a novel balance between the immune response and HIV-1, in which the eventual outcome is HIV-1 escape rather than control. The analytical model reproduces the three stages of HIV-1 infection. We propose a vaccine regimen that may be able to reduce competition between $T$ cells, potentially eliminating the third stage of HIV-1.

Figure 1

The entire time course of HIV-1 infection. The circles are clinical data from 16. The solid line is generated by our model.

Figure 2

The escape rate $\overline{\epsilon }$ increases as the competition $c_3$ increases.